probability


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tecnika
tecnika
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Hello,
In the experiment attached, there is an event (landslide) in a condition of "extremely low probability" that is probabilistically determined to occur in 1% of the cases. However, in 660 trials (testing multiple participants, it did not happen once - do you have any idea why? For the other variables, the frequency of occurrence of the landslide is close to what we had set (10%, 33% and 66%).
I attach the programme here - it shows:
<list extremelyLowProbability_evacuate>/ items=(trial.Evacuate_NoLandslide,trial.Evacuate_Landslide)/ poolsize=10/ itemprobabilities = (.99,.01)</list>

Has the poolsize anything to do with that?
In total the experiment run 12 trials per conditions, but I would expect that in 660 (running the experiment on multiple participants) I should to see at least one landslide for this condition.

Many thanks

Elena
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IPCC.iqx (216 views, 32.00 KB)
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tecnika - 7 Years Ago
Dave - 7 Years Ago
tecnika - 7 Years Ago
Dave - 7 Years Ago

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